Rosberg’s succession at Mercedes: where do things stand?

At the start of the winter break, the Formula 1 world is abuzz with rumors about the identity of the future Mercedes driver. Even though Toto Wolff recently mentioned taking his time to decide, the Brackley-based team is working hard to find a successor to Nico Rosberg before the end of the calendar year.

The Nice Media Buzz of Mercedes

And for that, Mercedes made headlines by sharing a humorous advertisement last week in the pages of the English magazine Autosport.

A rather significant job advert from @MercedesAMGF1 appears in tomorrow’s issue of Autosport magazine… #F1 #rosberg pic.twitter.com/b2JLucdH9l

— Autosport (@autosport) December 7

A position has opened up for a race car driver in our team, the announcement indicates. For clarification, the German team requires each candidate driver to demonstrate skills in driving, acceleration, as well as braking. Also, possessing an FIA Super License will be an advantage.

Following the announcement, many drivers reacted in a half-comic, half-serious manner. Some really played along, like Japanese driver Kamui Kobayashi—75 Grand Prix contested between 2009 and 2014—who posted a detailed resume on his Twitter page.

But the real candidates are indeed those on the track. Let’s recall that according to Toto Wolff himself, the vast majority of drivers have expressed their interest, with the exception of Daniil Kvyat and Kimi Räikkönen.

A quintet of outsiders set aside..

Sebastian Vettel was the first to distance himself from the rumors of replacing Nico Rosberg. The four-time world champion simply reminded everyone that his contract with the Reds extended until the end of 2017 and that there was no question of terminating it before then. Nonetheless, the speculations persisted, especially after Scuderia Ferrari’s disappointing season (seven podiums for the German but, more importantly, zero victories!).

Other candidates mentioned, the chances of Jenson Button, Esteban Ocon, Nico Hülkenberg, or Carlos Sainz are slim.

According to the German newspaper Bild, Wolff did contact the Renault team about Nico Hülkenberg. But Frédéric Vasseur’s refusal was clear: having just arrived, the French team is certainly counting on the former Force India driver for 2017.

Other scenarios include Jenson Button, who has shown no interest since the beginning of his retirement, or Esteban Ocon, placed at Force India and who seems far from Brackley.

The fourth most credible man is actually Carlos Sainz. After impressing in a challenging single-seater, first against Verstappen but especially against Daniil Kyvat, the Madrilenian can harbor some hopes. However, the Red Bull sphere is very protective when it comes to its prodigies. The Renault team knows this well, having wanted to secure his services recently to make him their star driver. Mercedes would have to pay hefty compensation to make Sainz Lewis Hamilton’s future teammate.

According to Wolff’s own admission, three names are now on the list.

**Toto Wolff’s Shortlist: The Alonso Illusion; Bottas, a Choice Both Credible and Thorny**

The first mentioned seems the most distant in this matter. By the admission of many actors in the F1 Circus, this transfer would be ideal. After 2007, it would once again bring together two stars, crowned with five world championship titles between them. Alonso’s arrival alongside Hamilton would be a real seismic event! However, the matter seems poorly underway.

Reacting to the speculations, McLaren leaders are clear. The new executive director in Woking, Zak Brown, has no doubt about Alonso’s presence for another year in his team. Asked by Motorsinside last Monday in Paris during the press conference of the French Grand Prix, Eric Boullier admitted that Alonso’s contract was still in place. A few days later, Flavio Briatore contributed by clearly admitting that Alonso would not be moving to Mercedes. Speaking to the Gazzetta dello Sport, the former Renault F1 team principal – still influential in the interests of the Spanish champion – also mentioned that the third and final year of the contract with McLaren-Honda would be respected.

However, the promise of fair treatment and a benchmark car certainly makes Alonso salivate. But will the Mercedes team take such a big risk? The bull from Asturias is a colorful character, even more so than Rosberg was. We obviously remember the conflicting coexistence that gave Ron Dennis hives. In this sense, Aldo Costa, head of the engine department at the Silver Arrows, recently expressed a reluctance towards Alonso: “As a driver, Fernando is one of the best. But outside the car, I never understood him. He is very hard for me to understand; he is an enigmatic character. I don’t see him at Mercedes.”

These remarks are further corroborated by the fact that Alonso reportedly does not have a performance clause allowing him to look elsewhere, despite the average performances of his team.

Another significant piece of information, the Spanish sports daily Marca claimed that Lewis Hamilton has vetoed the possibility of recruiting another top driver within the team! This automatically rules out an ambitious Alonso.

Second case, that of Valtteri Bottas. Although involved in the management of the Finn, Toto Wolff has limited his protégé’s chances of seeing him move up into the Silver Arrow: « He is currently the leader at Williams; and he is very important for the partnership with Lance Stroll. Claire (Williams) and her team really count on him, » he stated recently to the microphone of Sky Sports F1.

However, be cautious of these connections which could also turn positive: Bottas could still be promoted to Rosberg’s seat while Wehrlein might be sent to Grove. Let’s remember that the Williams team is powered by Mercedes and that an amicable arrangement is more easily negotiable between the two parties. A discount of 10 million dollars on the engine supply price has been mentioned. The Bottas option is making more sense every day, and Wolff is becoming increasingly insistent with Williams.

Wehrlein, a favorite nonetheless?

From then on, the flagship of the star brand is on the ranks. In any case, the transfer of Pascal Wehrlein is the easiest to obtain for Toto Wolff and his team. Reserve driver for Mercedes since September 2014, the German-Mauritian does not yet have a seat for the new season, as his discussions with Sauber were suspended following Rosberg’s shocking announcement. Everything aligns for the 2015 DTM champion, who has already accumulated kilometers for Pirelli tests aboard the W07. Recently in Abu Dhabi, Wehrlein had to step in at the last minute to replace a sick Lewis Hamilton. This happened even as the Mercedes team had already privately learned of Rosberg’s announcement…

In this candidacy, Wehrlein can even count on the support of Nico Rosberg in person! Invited to comment on the sidelines of his team’s end-of-season celebrations, the 31-year-old German admitted that Pascal is an enormous prospect for Germany in the future. He must obviously be on the short-list.

In this sense, the Wehrlein option is the most likely as long as Mercedes does nothing to buy out the contracts of the other two drivers. Toto Wolff has recently admitted that Mercedes would respect the current contracts.

When interviewed at the Autosport Awards, Wehrlein expressed his desire to seize the opportunity of a lifetime: “Definitely, I am ready. A season in F1 is not much, but I feel quite confident.”

But indeed, will a team as renowned as Mercedes trust a boy who has only completed a single full season, with Manor, the weakest car on the grid no less?

Caught off guard by Rosberg’s news, the German team is weighing all possibilities in their decision. For the young Wehrlein (22 years old), the initial plan was mainly to send him to Sauber for a year or two before considering him for the Mercedes seat.

Faced with a Toto Wolff who wants to make a bold decision to replace his world champion, the suspense remains guaranteed. Words that are not very clear and leave room for a last-minute turnaround: “We need the fastest driver, who makes the fewest possible mistakes, and who understands that there is a team spirit at play.”

So, what will be the next episode of this winter’s saga /f1/actualite/21618-seuls-deux-pilotes-nont-pas-appele-toto-wolff-pour-remplacer-rosberg.html ?

In view of the relative impossibility of Fernando Alonso and Valtteri Bottas, Pascal Wehrlein is well positioned for the future. However, even if the confirmation arrives, it will be interesting to see the contract signed between the two parties.

Vettel and Alonso’s commitments will end at the end of 2017, while Max Verstappen has a contract with Red Bull until the end of 2018. The arrival of Wehrlein would thus seem a rational choice, before possibly recruiting a headliner next year.