Which driver can still win the 2009 World Championship?

The drivers’ championship seems decided in advance, and yet, there are still five drivers who can claim the highly coveted title this 2009 season. They have four races left to achieve it. Without suspense, Lewis Hamilton – McLaren, champion in 2008 and Fernando Alonso – Renault, champion in 2005 and 2006 are out of contention. From now on, the only world champion who can repeat his feat is Kimi Räikkönen in a Ferrari.

With four races to go before the Grail, there are a maximum of 40 points left to earn. Thus, in absolute terms, there are still 5 drivers who could potentially claim the 2009 drivers’ title: Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello in the Brawn GP are, of course, the favorites. Nonetheless, the Red Bull drivers, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber, can also compete for the title. The last man still holding onto hope is Kimi Räikkönen.

The Finnish driver, already crowned in 2007, is exactly 40 points behind the leader, Button. Mathematically, he is a potential title contender, but for that to happen, he would have to win all the races, and neither Button nor Barrichello would score any points for the rest of the season: in other words, it’s impossible.

With 51.5 points in favor of Mark Webber (Red Bull) against 80 for Button after the Italian GP, the chances are very slim. To win the title, Webber would need to win all the races (40 points) and be lucky for Button to score at most just one point (8th place) over four Grand Prix. He would also need to beat Barrichello by more than two places at each finish. A mission that is again complicated for the Australian.

With 54 points to his tally, Sebastian Vettel is not better off. To win this 2009 championship, he would also need to win all the Grand Prix races and hope that Button only scores 4 points in 4 races. If Button falters, Vettel could compete with Barrichello. He would then need to beat him by a two-place margin at least twice (thus creating a tie, but Vettel would win the title due to his greater number of victories…).

Finally, the fight will be tighter within the Brawn GP clan. This team, which took over Honda, is now on the verge of winning its first title(s) in its first year of entry into the Formula 1 World Championship. It’s unprecedented!

Barrichello is currently 14 points behind Jenson Button. With four Grand Prix races to come, Barrichello would need to finish first four times. He would then have to hope that Button achieves only a third place at most in the four races. Other scenarios are possible. In the event of a tie in points, which could happen if Barrichello wins all the races and Button finishes third three times and once second; then the two men would be separated by the greatest number of second places (indeed, in the same scenario, they would each have won 6 Grand Prix races).

If Button wins the next Grand Prix, the only person who could still catch up to him would be his teammate, Barrichello. As you’ve understood, Button is in the best position to win the 2009 title. Will he choose to fight until the end or secure the title? An accident like the one that happened to Massa would put him directly out of the race.