The current F1 champion, Max Verstappen, is well on his way to winning the 2022 championship. With a 104-point lead over Charles Leclerc in the standings, and 106 points over his teammate, Sergio Perez, Max Verstappen can be rather confident.
With the Japanese Grand Prix and the remaining 4 races (including 1 in sprint format), there will be a maximum of 138 points to be awarded. The calculation is as follows: 25 points per victory + 5 points for setting the fastest lap in a race + 8 points from the sprint race.
If Max Verstappen wins this weekend in Japan, there will only be 112 points left to be awarded and he will have:
Option 1: 367 points with the bonus point for the fastest lap
Option 2: 366 points with a single victory
If his pursuers cannot maintain a delay of less than 112 points, he will therefore be inevitably titled (even in case of a tie as the driver with the most wins prevails).
If Verstappen wins and sets the fastest lap in Japan.
Titled in all cases.
This is the only condition for Verstappen to be immediately crowned champion, regardless of the positions of his competitors. Even if Leclerc finishes second, it will not be enough to reduce the 112-point gap.
If Verstappen wins without setting the fastest lap.
Titled if Leclerc does not finish second: The only possibility in this case that could prevent Verstappen from winning the title would be if Charles Leclerc finishes 2nd. Regardless of the other positions, in this case Verstappen would be crowned champion.
If Verstappen doesn’t win but gets the fastest lap.
The calculations are starting to get complicated in this case, but it’s still possible for the Red Bull driver to win the championship.
If Verstappen is 2nd.
Sergio Perez must finish 4th or further.
Charles Leclerc must finish 5th or lower.
If Verstappen is 3rd.
Sergio Perez must finish 5th or further.
Charcle Leclerc must finish 6th or lower.
If Verstappen is 4th
Sergio Perez must finish 6th or further.
Charles Leclerc must finish 8th or further.
If Verstappen is 5th.
Sergio Perez must finish 8th or further.
Charles Leclerc must finish 9th or further.
If Verstappen is in 6th place
Sergio Perez must finish 9th or higher.
Charles Leclerc must finish in 10th place or lower.
If Verstappen doesn’t win and doesn’t have the fastest lap.
In this case, variations are possible if Perez or Leclerc achieve the fastest lap and win the race. However, it should be noted that:
If Verstappen is 2nd.
Sergio Perez must finish 4th or lower.
Charles Leclerc must finish 5th or lower.
If Verstappen is 3rd.
Sergio Perez must finish 6th or further.
Charles Leclerc must finish 7th or lower.
If Verstappen is 4th.
Sergio Perez must finish 7th or farther.
Charles Leclerc must finish 8th or lower.
If Verstappen is 5th.
Sergio Perez must finish 8th or further.
Charles Leclerc must finish 9th or lower.
If Verstappen is 6th.
Sergio Perez must finish 9th or lower.
Charles Leclerc must finish 11th or lower.
No title possible beyond the 6th place.
If Max Verstappen fails to secure a top 6 spot, he will have no chance of being crowned this weekend at the Japanese Grand Prix.
