2010 Season: The State of the Formula 1 Transfer Market

Since always, Formula 1 has shone through its Grand Prix, its races, and the automotive showcase it represents. But F1 wouldn’t be F1 without its drivers and especially its transfers. Transfers in a season are always hectic, and at the end of each year, speculation runs rampant about which driver will go to which team. The 2010 season is no exception to the rule; quite the contrary.

Transfers this 2010 season are very hectic and news, both true and rumored, is flying from all sides since July. We suggest taking stock of the transfer market for the 2010 season. A point-by-point team analysis:

McLaren-Mercedes:

The Woking team has a driver educated by the star for a few years in the person of **Lewis Hamilton**. Already a world champion in his second season, the Englishman will not be leaving the McLaren team next season. Hamilton therefore remains the number 1 driver for the team. As for the number 2 position, however, the situation becomes unclear. **Heikki Kovalainen** does not satisfy the leaders of the silver arrows. He will probably be replaced by his Nordic compatriot, **Kimi Räikkönen**. Already a McLaren driver before his Ferrari episode, Räikkönen would be preferred by Martin Whitmarsh (the director) over **Nico Rosberg**. However, some would be reluctant to see Räikkönen return in gray, including the mechanics. The option of **Nick Heidfeld** is also not to be excluded. The German is consistent and holds the record for the number of consecutive GP finishes. For the third driver position, Gary Paffett should be the only one remaining in McLaren’s ranks; Pedro de la Rosa being set to leave the team to become a main driver elsewhere…

Probable line-up:

1 – Lewis Hamilton

2 – Kimi Räikkönen

Ferrari:

The Scuderia Ferrari always captivates. The team officially announced its drivers later than usual, compared to the traditional timing at the Italian Grand Prix, but the stakes were high. The team thus ensnares the big fish, Fernando Alonso. He will replace another world champion Kimi Räikkönen, who no longer meets the group’s expectations. Felipe Massa, although still in recovery, will retain his position as a Ferrari driver in 2010. As for the test drivers, only Marc Gené is expected to be renewed. Luca Badoer is definitively removed from Scuderia after his lack of performance in races when he replaced Massa.

Probable line-up:

1 – Felipe Massa

2 – Fernando Alonso

Renault:

The team of the diamond, weakened by numerous political and sports scandals and mediocre Grand Prix results, has lost its emblem Fernando Alonso for the second time. The Spaniard was replaced by Robert Kubica a few days after his departure announcement. The Pole had been on the transfer market for several months, following BMW-Sauber’s announcement to quit Formula 1 at the end of 2009. Renault currently has a second rookie driver with Franco-Swiss Romain Grosjean. With (too) high expectations placed on him, rumors suggest Renault F1 is disappointed. Grosjean will thus have to prove himself in Brazil and Abu Dhabi to avoid being replaced. He is currently threatened by Timo Glock, Nico Rosberg, and even Nick Heidfeld. The latter would allow the BMW team to be reformed within the Renault F1 Team to regain coherence. Grosjean’s experience remains essential in the team, and the Frenchman likely didn’t leave the GP2 championship and his second place for just 6 Formula 1 Grand Prix… stay tuned for developments, especially complicated since Kimi Räikkönen is also rumored to be a candidate at Renault.

Probable line-up:

1 – Robert Kubica

2 – Romain Grosjean

Toyota:

It is known that Toyota has victory goals that it has still not achieved in Formula 1. The team could decide to leave F1 next year and, if not, may want to change everything. A 100% Japanese driver duo is not to be excluded. The team could recruit Kazuki Nakajima instead of Jarno Trulli, who is demanding too high a salary, and Kamui Kobayashi instead of the German Timo Glock. For now, rumors prefer Heikki Kovalainen, departing from McLaren, and Timo Glock. However, the Räikkönen option is not excluded.

Probable line-up:

1 – Timo Glock

2 – Kamui Kobayashi

Toro Rosso-Ferrari

The small Scuderia, as it is called in the paddocks, is a subsidiary of Red Bull. As such, the lineup is subject to complete changes or stability. Both drivers are thus ‘under scrutiny,’ but like Sebastian Vettel, who was kept for two seasons and then sold at a profit to the parent company, Sébastien Buemi is expected to be retained on the team. Rumors suggest that Jaime Alguersuari, who replaced Sébastien Bourdais mid-season, might be replaced by a more experienced driver. The Spaniard has not commented on his future, but if he is replaced, he could have a chance with Campos Meta. Romain Grosjean is a potential candidate to replace Alguersuari, but Vitaly Petrov – a multiple GP2 winner – is also in the running.

Probable line-up:

1 – Sébastien Buemi

2 – Jaime Alguersuari

Red Bull-Renault:

A few weeks ago, Red Bull Racing confirmed its driver line-up for 2010. It was supposed to consist of Sebastian Vettel – currently third in the championship – and Mark Webber – 4th. However, since the announcement of Kimi Räikkönen’s replacement at Ferrari, Red Bull seems very interested. Räikkönen’s manager admitted that several teams were in talks with the Finnish driver, but Red Bull would not be among them. Horner, the director, would prefer otherwise. Stability remains the most realistic hypothesis.

Probable line-up:

1 – Sebastian Vettel

2 – Mark Webber

Williams-Toyota

Williams has been powered by the Japanese Toyota since 2007. As per the contract, the team would have engaged Japanese driver Kazuki Nakajima as a main driver in 2008. Now, Williams seems to be turning away from the Japanese firm and is looking to change their engine supplier. The new engine provider is not yet official, but Renault appears to be the favorite. This raises the question of the drivers. Without Toyota supporting Nakajima, he might well be replaced by Nico Hülkenberg – the winner of the last GP2 Series championship. The German, managed by Willy Weber (known for managing Michael Schumacher), has been serving as a test driver for Williams for two years. The probability here is significant, but everything is still uncertain for the second driver. Nico Rosberg has been saying for a few seasons that he is waiting for a competitive car. The German would like to leave the team for McLaren or Brawn GP. The most likely option to replace him would be a simple exchange: Rubens Barrichello.

Probable line-up:

1 – Nico Rosberg

2 – Nico Hülkenberg

Force India-Mercedes:

Force India is one of the few teams to have changed drivers during the season, similar to Renault or Toro Rosso. The Indian team parted ways with Giancarlo Fisichella, who left to replace Massa at Ferrari. Since then, the team has been racing with Adrian Sutil and Vitantonio Liuzzi. However, with the announcement of Alonso’s departure to Renault, the lineup seems compromised. Renault is interested in securing the services of German driver Sutil. If the rumors prove true, the team could replace him with an (finally) Indian driver, considering Narain Karthikeyan or Karun Chandhok.

Probable line-up:

1 – Adrian Sutil

2 – Vitantonio Liuzzi

Brawn GP-Mercedes:

The Honda team, saved from the brink by Ross Brawn, has thrived with a lineup that hadn’t previously shown its potential. Brawn GP is now fighting for both titles with Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello. The most optimistic foresee the team unchanged for the next season, yet some rumors cast a shadow over this outlook. The most likely one is Rubens Barrichello’s departure to Williams. The team would then seek another talented driver to join its ranks, and it could well be Nico Rosberg. A straightforward exchange with Williams would then be in order.

Probable line-up:

1 – Jenson Button

2 – Nico Rosberg

Manor GP-Cosworth:

The team is completely new, like the next three. Created without a foundation, experienced drivers are reluctant to take a risk for Manor… The team will probably have to make do with drivers who have so far been test drivers and have not yet raced in Formula 1. This is the case for Lucas di Grassi, Renault’s third driver who could move to Manor. Kazuki Nakajima or Jaime Alguersuari are possible number one drivers for the team. Otherwise, these two young men risk being without a seat next year.

Probable line-up:

1 – Lucas di Grassi

2 – Kazuki Nakajima

Campos Meta-Cosworth:

Very Spanish, the team boasts about its origins. For its first season, hopes are directed towards an entirely Iberian line-up. Spanish drivers are present in F1. Pedro de la Rosa – McLaren’s third driver for several years serves as the favorite. He could very well be accompanied by Jaime Alguersuari or Marc Gené. However, the team is lacking in budget and might have to hire a paying driver. In this situation, Bruno Senna and Vitaly Petrov are the favorites.

Probable line-up:

1 – Pedro de la Rosa

2 – Bruno Senna

US GPE-Cosworth:

Similarly to Campos, US GPE (also known as US F1 for now) is proud of its American roots. The team would like to have two drivers from the United States in 2010. However, the dream is difficult to achieve due to the low number of Americans holding a Super License. Names like Jonathan Summerton – a driver in A1 GP – or Kurt Bush – an IndyCar driver are mentioned. Peter Windsor also wants experience, and Anthony Davidson has it. However, Windsor might sacrifice his dream to welcome an experienced non-American driver. Rumors have circulated with Jacques Villeneuve, the 1997 champion. In recent weeks, contacts seem to be intensifying with Sébastien Bourdais. Both men are well-known in the land of Uncle Sam.

Probable line-up:

1 – Sébastien Bourdais

2 – Jonathan Summerton

Lotus-Cosworth:

Lotus is the 13th and probably the last team registered for the 2010 World Championship. Originally Malaysian, it would like to have its drivers participate in F1 and represent Malaysia. However, Malaysian drivers are difficult to find, and drivers sidelined by their teams might be employed. Jarno Trulli seems to have the edge due to his connections with Mike Gascoyne, the team’s director. The second seat will probably go to Malaysian driver Fairuz Fauzy, while Nick Heidfeld, who is without a seat for 2010, is also mentioned.

Probable line-up:

1 – Jarno Trulli

2 – Fairuz Fauzy

F1 2010: the provisional transfer table